This is a little bit of a shocker... it's widely held that Barack Obama has a severe Appalachia problem, one that he would need to overcome in order to compete everywhere. Few states exhibit his inherent problems more than Kentucky, but today, SUSA has polled Kentucky again and shown that Obama has slashed McCain's lead in Half.
(5/18) [3/16]
McCain: 53% (56%) [64%]
Obama: 41% (32%) [28%]
Differ: +12 +24 +36
The best news is that we're looking at McCain's likely ceiling and the trend for Obama is very promising. Here's the party ID:
Democrats: Obama 59%, McCain 35%
Independents: McCain 47%, Obama 42%
Ideology
Moderate: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
Liberal: Obama 80%, McCain 13%
Also, 23% surveyed could still change their mind, and in that group, it's 44% McCain, 43% Obama. There is a swing possible in Kentucky under the best of circumstances.
More importantly, what this means is that Barack Obama has probably closed the Appalachia Gap in vital places like Western Virginia and Western North Carolina. Recent Polling also indicates that Arkansas tightened significantly...
I think we've found a trail for Senator Clinton to campaign on for Barack!
An Update, Here is the Senate Poll showing Bruce Lunsford still giving Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell some fits.
McConnell 50%
Lunsford 46%
Incumbent Republican US Senator Mitch McConnell leads Democrat Bruce Lunsford by 4 points in a poll with a 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington, and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. McConnell takes 50% of the vote today; Lunsford takes 46%. Among men, McConnell leads by 8 points; among women, McConnell leads by 2. Among voters age 18-34, Lunsford leads by 11 points; among those 35-49, McConnell leads by 15. Among voters 50+, McConnell leads by 5. McConnell holds 87% of Republican voters; Lunsford holds 67% of Democrats. Lunsford leads in the Louisville area by 13 points; McConnell leads in the rest of the state. McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, is running for his fifth term. Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, ran in the Democratic primaries for Kentucky Governor in 2003 and 2007.
I've given to Lunsford before, many don't like him on issues much, but smeared shit on the floor is honestly better than McConnell